Prediction of demand trends of coking coal in China based on grey linear regression composition model

Abstract

The scarce of coking coal resources in China results in its short supply. By establishing a grey linear regression composition model, this paper has greatly improved the inadequacy of grey system prediction model and regression analysis method in trend prediction and finished the prediction of demand trends of coking coal in China with this model. As result of the prediction, it is estimated that in the next decade, the demand for coking coal in China will experience a growth trend; China’s demand for coking coal will reach more than 1.535 billion tons by 2015, reach the maximum of 1.639 billion tons by 2020 and drop in 2025.