Prediction of COVID-19 Social Distancing Adherence (SoDA) on the United States county-level

Myles Ingram,Ashley Zahabian,Chin Hur

doi:10.1057/s41599-021-00767-0

Abstract

Social distancing policies are currently the best method of mitigating the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, adherence to these policies vary greatly on a county-by-county level. We used social distancing adherence (SoDA) estimated from mobile phone data and population-based demographics/statistics of 3054 counties in the United States to determine which demographics features correlate to adherence on a countywide level. SoDA scores per day were extracted from mobile phone data and aggregated from March 16, 2020 to April 14, 2020. 45 predictor features were evaluated using univariable regression to determine their level of correlation with SoDA. These 45 features were then used to form a SoDA prediction model. Persons who work from home prior to the COVID-19 pandemic (β = 0.259, p < 0.00001) and owner-occupied housing unit rate (β = −0.322, p < 0.00001) were the most positively correlated and negatively correlated features to SoDA, respectively. Counties with higher per capita income, older persons, and more suburban areas were positively associated with adherence while counties with higher African American population, high obesity rate, earlier first COVID-19 case/death, and more Republican-leaning residents were negatively correlated with adherence. The base model predicted county SoDA with 90.8% accuracy. The model using only COVID-19-related features predicted with 64% accuracy and the model using the top 25 most substantial features predicted with 89% accuracy. Our results indicate that economic features, health features, and a few other features, such as political affiliation, race, and the time since the first case/death, impact SoDA on a countywide level. These features, combined, can predict adherence with a high level of confidence. Our prediction model could be utilized to inform health policy planning and potential interventions in areas with lower adherence.

Highlights

In January 2020, a new strain of coronavirus, COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) was first reported in the United States
Families in poverty data indicates that those in poverty have a harder time affording the luxury of social distancing, as those with lower incomes feel they need to work in order to survive (Dasgupta et al, 2020)
Per capita income correlates positively with social distancing adherence (SoDA), suggesting those with higher incomes are more likely to afford the ability to social distance

Summary

Introduction

In January 2020, a new strain of coronavirus, COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) was first reported in the United States. Several versions of the vaccine have been produced by many pharmaceutical companies. Despite the initial distribution of vaccines, the primary method to fight this virus has been social distancing. More research needs to be done in order to determine whether the vaccines prevent asymptomatic infections, whether vaccinated individuals can spread the disease and how long immunity from the vaccines will last. Until these questions are answered and enough people have been vaccinated to establish herd immunity, health officials recommend social distancing practices to slow the spread of COVID-19 (Mallapaty, 2021; Mayo Clinic Health System, 2021)

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Results

Conclusion