Prediction of COVID-19 Dynamics in Kuwait using SIRD Model

Abstract

COVID-19 infectious started on 24 February 2020 with 5 patients returning to Kuwait. The ministry of health (MOH) has reported a total of 26,192 patients with 10,156 recovered, 15,831 under treatment, 205 deceased, 206 critical, and 23 quarantined in Kuwait on 30 May 2020. Accurate prediction of the number of expected infected patients, patients under treatment, patients in critical condition, and death will assist health authorities for better planning and the government policymakers a better approach to reduce the number of susceptible people to COVID-19. In this study, a modified SIR model is used to determine COVID-19 dynamics in Kuwait. COVID-19 data for 97 days consist of infectious, recovered, and deceased cases are used to study the SIRD model and to obtain the re-production number and the total susceptible (Sus) population. The accuracy of the fitted model is assessed using the coefficient of determination (R2). The re-production of the total susceptible (predicted) population of 123,102 is obtained to assess the dynamics of COVID-19 in Kuwait. It is predicted that the peak of COVID-19 infectious will be around 23 June 2020 with total infected cases of 56,533. However, a maximum of 26,039 people in the need of hospitals may be accelerated on 10 June 2020 and will quickly drop on 2 July 2020 to only 377 people. The total deceased cases will be 1,169 on this date; although, the death tolls may continue to the total value of 2,667 by the end of the pandemic.