Abstract
COVID-19 infectious started on 24 February 2020 with 5 patients returning to Kuwait. The ministry of health (MOH) has reported a total of 26,192 patients with 10,156 recovered, 15,831 under treatment, 205 deceased, 206 critical, and 23 quarantined in Kuwait on 30 May 2020. Accurate prediction of the number of expected infected patients, patients under treatment, patients in critical condition, and death will assist health authorities for better planning and the government policymakers a better approach to reduce the number of susceptible people to COVID-19. In this study, a modified SIR model is used to determine COVID-19 dynamics in Kuwait. COVID-19 data for 97 days consist of infectious, recovered, and deceased cases are used to study the SIRD model and to obtain the re-production number and the total susceptible (Sus) population. The accuracy of the fitted model is assessed using the coefficient of determination (R2). The re-production of the total susceptible (predicted) population of 123,102 is obtained to assess the dynamics of COVID-19 in Kuwait. It is predicted that the peak of COVID-19 infectious will be around 23 June 2020 with total infected cases of 56,533. However, a maximum of 26,039 people in the need of hospitals may be accelerated on 10 June 2020 and will quickly drop on 2 July 2020 to only 377 people. The total deceased cases will be 1,169 on this date; although, the death tolls may continue to the total value of 2,667 by the end of the pandemic.
Highlights
The novel corona virus (COVID-19) was first observed in a seafood centre in Wuhan, China in December 2019
The SIR model is widely used in epidemiology as an efficient mathematical tool for prediction of dynamics of infectious disease
The SIR model consists of 3 set of ordinary differential equations (ODE) based on susceptible (Sus) cases, infected cases (Inf), and removed cases (Rem) including recovered and death [6, 7]
Summary
The novel corona virus (COVID-19) was first observed in a seafood centre in Wuhan, China in December 2019. China confirmed 78,824 infectious cases on 28 February 2020 with 2,788 death tolls in the country. Soon after, it is announced the COVID19 infectious as the pandemic with some 51 countries reported cases of COVID-19 in their countries [1, 2]. Kuwait government have taken several steps as time passed to control the pandemic. These practices are included with closure of all education system from schools to Universities, closure of all public gathering places from restaurants, sport centres to leisure clubs, ceased operation of all public transportation from taxis to buses, partial curfew banning
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