Prediction of Coronary Heart Disease Events in Blood or Marrow Transplantation Recipients.

Abstract

The long-term risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and clinical models that predict this risk remain understudied in blood or marrow transplantation (BMT) recipients. This study sought to examine the risk of CHD after BMT and identify the associated risk factors. Participants included patients transplanted between 1974 and 2014 at City of Hope, University of Minnesota, or University of Alabama at Birmingham and those who survived≥2 years after BMT. Multivariable logistic regression models assessed CHD risk in BMT survivors compared with a sibling cohort. A self-reported questionnaire and medical records provided information regarding sociodemographics, comorbidities, and therapeutic exposures, which were used to develop a CHD risk prediction nomogram. Overall, 6,677 BMT recipients participated; the mean age at BMT was 43.9 ± 17.7 years, 58.3% were male, and 73.3% were non-Hispanic Whites. The median length of follow-up was 6.9 years (range: 2-46.2 years) from BMT. CHD was reported in 249 participants, with a 20-year cumulative incidence of 5.45% ± 0.39%. BMT survivors had a 1.6-fold greater odds of CHD compared with a sibling cohort (95% CI: 1.09-2.40). A nomogram was then developed to predict the risk of CHD at 10 and 20 years after BMT including age at BMT (HR: 1.06/y; 95% CI: 1.04-1.08), male sex (HR: 1.89; 95% CI: 1.15-3.11), a history of smoking (HR: 1.61; 95% CI: 1.01-2.58), diabetes (HR: 2.45; 95% CI: 1.23-4.89), hypertension (HR: 2.02; 95% CI: 1.15-3.54), arrhythmia (HR: 1.90; 95% CI: 0.89-4.06), and pre-BMT chest radiation (yes vs no: HR: 2.83; 95% CI: 1.20-6.67; unknown vs no: HR: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.34-2.28). The C-statistic was 0.77 in the test set (95% CI: 0.70-0.83). This study identified BMT recipients at high risk for CHD, informing targeted screening for early detection and aggressive control of risk factors.