Abstract
In the present study, the effectiveness of nowcasting convective activities using a microwave radiometer has been examined for Kolkata (22.65° N, 88.45° E), a tropical location. It has been found that the standard deviation of brightness temperature (BT) at 22GHz and instability indices like Lifting Index (LI), K Index (KI) and Humidity Index (HI) has shown definite changes before convective events. It is also seen that combination of standard deviation of BT at 22GHz and LI can be most effective in predicting convection. A nowcasting algorithm is prepared using 18 isolated convective events of 2011 and in all cases, a marked variation of these parameters has been seen an hour before the event. Accordingly, a prediction model is developed and tested on convective events of 2012 and 2013. It is seen that the model gives reasonable success in predicting convective rain about 7075min in advance with a prediction efficiency of 80%.
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