Prediction of Coal Output in Wuhai Using Grey-Markvo Model Improved by Nonlinear Regression

Abstract

Coal resource is abundant in Wuhai city. Its production had better meet the need of economic growth and be preserved for sustainable development. Accuracy prediction is critical to make program. The final model of grey theory is exponential growth. Exponential and quadratic functions are directly assumed. Parameters are estimated by Least Square. Residuals sum of squares indicate superiority of quadratic function. Long trend is fitted by quadratic. Deviation is measured by sine function and Markov chain respectively. Coal outturn of Wuhai in 2015 is predicted to be 25.1949 and 30.2917 million tones. Since output in 2009 is 29.73 million tones, quadratic and Markov chain reveal underlying trend of Wuhai coal production.