Prediction of china’s submerged coastal areas by sea level rise due to climate change

Abstract

Based on the simulation with the Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model CCSM and Ocean Model POP under the greenhouse gas emission scenario of the IPCC SRES A2 (IPCC, 2001), and on the earth crust subsidence and glacier melting data, the relative sea level change is obtained along the coast of China in the 21st century. Using the SRTM elevation data the submergence of coastal low land is calculated under the extreme water level with a 100-year return period. The total flooding areas are 98.3×103 and 104.9×103 km2 for 2050 and 2080, respectively. For the three regions most vulnerable to extreme sea level rise, i.e., the coast of Bohai Bay, the Yangtze River Delta together with neighboring Jiangsu Province and northern Zhejiang Province, and the Pearl River Delta, the flooded areas are 5.0×103, 64.1×103 and 15.3×103 km2 in 2050 and 5.2×103, 67.8×103 and 17.2×103 km2 in 2080, respectively.