Prediction of Childbirth Mortality Using Machine Learning.

Abstract

Timely identification of risk factors in the early stages of pregnancy, risk management and mitigation, prevention, adherence management can reduce the number of adverse perinatal outcomes and complications for both mother and a child. We have retrospectively analyzed electronic health records from the perinatal Center of the Almazov specialized medical center in Saint-Petersburg, Russia. Correlation analysis was performed using Pearson correlation coefficient to select the most relevant predictors. We used APGAR score as a metrics for the childbirth outcomes. Score of 5 and less was considered as a negative outcome. To analyze the influence of the unstructured anamnesis data on the prediction accuracy we have run two prediction experiments for every classification task: 1. Without unstructured data and 2. With unstructured data. This study presents implementation of predictive models for adverse childbirth events that provides higher precision than state of the art models. This is due to the use of unstructured medical data in addition to the structured dataset that allowed to reach 0.92 precision. Identification of main risk factors using the results of the features importance analysis can support clinicians in early identification of possible complications and planning and execution preventive measures.