Prediction of Charlson weighted index of comorbidities on evaluating common diseases on ＞ 60 years old patients with rectum cancer

Abstract

Objective To investigate the effect of common diseases by the Charlson weighted index of comorbidities(WIC) in predicting 1-year survival rate of older patients with rectum cancer.Methods Retrospective analyzed 160 patients with rectum cancer who were admitted in general surgery of Beijing Chaoyang Hospital Affiliated to Capital Medical University from Jun.2011 to May 2012.The patients were divided into two groups according to 1-year survival status:survival group (n =123) and death group (n =37).The data were recorded including age,gender,cancer diagnosis,underlying diseases,operation mode (laparoscopic or open) The WIC and the Acute physiology and chronic health Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) score were calculated.Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the independent predictors for 1-year survival rate.Receiver operating characteristics(ROC) curve was used to evaluate the value of WIC in predicting 1-year survival rate.Results Of the 160 patients,123 cases survived,37 cases died at 1 year after treatment.WIC score and APACHE score in death group were (2.2 ± 1.3) and (11.5 ± 5.1),higher than those of survival group (1.3 ± 1.2,9.5 ± 4.3 ;P =0.021,0.014).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis indicated that age,mode of operation,WIC score and APACHE score were related to the 1-year survival status of patients with rectal cancer(OR(95％ CI):1.053 (1.018-1.178,1.021 (1.011-1.906),1.786 (1.203-2.235),1.019 (1.004-1.628).ROC curve area of forecasting of death of the WIC score,APACHE Ⅱ score and the combination of the two are 0.731,0.828,0.959.Conclusion The WIC scoring system can be a good evaluation method for 1-year survival rate in old patients with rectum cancer. Key words: Charlson weighted index of comorbidities scoring system; Acute physiology and chronic health Ⅱ score; Receiver operating characteristics curve; Logistic regression; Rectum cancer