Prediction of cardiac death in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy using plasma adipokine levels

Abstract

Backgrounds and aimsHypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) causes cardiac death through both sudden cardiac death (SCD) and death due to heart failure (HF). Although adipokines lead to adverse cardiac remodeling in HCM, the prognostic value of plasma adipokines in HCM remains unknown. We aimed to predict cardiac death in patients with HCM using plasma adipokines. Methods and resultsWe performed a multicenter prospective cohort study of patients with HCM. The outcome was cardiac death including heart transplant, death due to HF, and SCD. With data from 1 institution (training set), a prediction model was developed using random forest classification algorithm based on 10 plasma adipokines. The performance of the prediction model adjusted for 8 clinical parameters was examined in samples from another institution (test set). Time-to-event analysis was performed in the test set to compare the rate of outcome events between the low-risk and high-risk groups determined by the prediction model. In total, 389 (267 in the training set; 122 in the test set) patients with HCM were included. During the median follow-up of 2.7 years, 21 patients experienced the outcome event. The area under the covariates-adjusted receiver-operating characteristics curve was 0.89 (95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.71–0.99) in the test set. revealed the high-risk group had a significantly higher risk of cardiac death (hazard ratio 17.8, 95 % CI 2.1–148.3, P = 0.008). ConclusionThe present multicenter prospective study demonstrated that a panel of plasma adipokines predicts cardiac death in patients with HCM.