Prediction of British summer river flows using winter predictors

Abstract

Seasonal predictions of river flow provide managers with the opportunity to plan the use of water resources in advance. Summer (June–August) river flows for the period 1961–2002 in 20 catchments in Great Britain were grouped into two clusters, largely representing the southeast and the northwest of Britain. The cluster average summer river flows were predicted by linear regression using the previous winter’s (December–February) river flow, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), North American land air temperature and global airflow indices as potential predictors.