Prediction of Availability of Packed Red Cells (PRC) at PMI Surabaya City Using Ensemble Kalman Filter as Management of Blood Transfusion Management

Abstract

Blood transfusion in terms of both quality and quantity is needed by patients with various health problems they experience. Along with the increased need for blood transfusion, the management of blood transfusion arrangements (blood collection from donors, selection, distribution, storage), and the ability of nurses to provide transfusion to patients is needed. If there are a lot of mistakes in both the ability of management and the ability of nurses, it can not only lead to a fatal impact on a patientbut also increase amount of need for blood transfusion. Due to the importance of blood transfusion, maintaining the stability of blood stock must be done so as not to cause blood loss due to exces of the blood stock. To minimize such loss, blood prediction is needed. The objective of this study is to predict blood demand for blood type of Packed Red Cells (PRC) or concentrated red blood cells at PMI Surabaya by using the method of Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and Ensemble Kalman Filter Square Root (EnKF-SR). The simulation results show that both methods have high accuracy with an error of less than 1% and RMSE of EnKF-SR. The best simulation exhibited the error between the real data and the simulation with EnKF-SR was in the order of 0.0023574, whereas with EnKF was some 0.025566 with generated 400 ensembles.