Prediction of Angina Pectoris Events in Middle-Aged and Elderly People Using RR Interval Time Series in the Resting State: A Cohort Study Based on SHHS

Abstract

Angina pectoris is associated with adverse cardiovascular events. In this study, a Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) prediction model with the Attention layer was established to explore the predictive value of the resting-state RR interval time series on the occurrence of angina pectoris. The data of this cohort study were from the Sleep Heart Health Study database, 2,977 people were included with the follow-up of 15 years. We used the RR interval time series of electrocardiogram signals in the resting state. The outcome variables were any angina events during the follow-up. We randomly divided 2,977 participants into training (n = 2680) and testing sets (n = 297) with a partition ratio of 9:1. The prediction model of Bi-LSTM with Attention layer was developed and the predictive performance was assessed. 1,236 had angina pectoris and 1,741 patients did not have angina pectoris during the follow-up period. The predictive performance of the Bi-LSTM model was great with the value of accuracy = 0.913, area under the curve (AUC) = 0.922, precision = 0.913 in the testing set. RR intervals may be the potential predictors of angina events. It is more and more convenient to obtain heart rate with the development of wearable devices; the Bi-LSTM prediction model established in this study is expected to provide support for the intelligent prediction of angina pectoris events.