Prediction of Aging Population in Guangdong Province Based on Metabolic GM (1,1) Model

Abstract

With the deepening of reform and opening up, Guangdong’s economic vitality continues to be maintained. People’s living standards and medical conditions have further improved, the population’s life expectancy has gradually increased, and the aging of the population has intensified. With the data of the elderly population aged 65 and above in Guangdong Province from 2011 to 2020, a metabolic GM (1,1) model is established based on the grey system theory, and the predictive value of the established model is tested. The results show: Q= 0.005189 ≤ 0.01; the mean square deviation ratio c= 0.064 ≤ 0.35; the test accuracy of the model is class I. The metabolic GM (1,1) model predicts that the population aged 65 and over in Guangdong Province will continue to increase in the next five years, and the problem of population aging is still severe. Therefore, it is necessary to change the situation. In the past, solutions to population aging only focused on the aspects of changing the population policy and the pension system. Now, we should fully consider the interrelationship of population aging on economic growth, savings and consumption, macroeconomic balance, and other indicators. We should actively respond to the urgent reality of the population aging in Guangdong with a systematic strategy.