Prediction of adverse perinatal outcome at midgestation.

Abstract

First, to investigate the association between adverse neonatal outcomes and birth weight and gestational age at delivery. Second, to describe the distribution of adverse neonatal outcomes within different risk strata derived by a population stratification scheme based on the midgestation risk assessment for small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonates using a competing-risks model. This was a prospective observational cohort study in women with a singleton pregnancy attending a routine hospital visit at 19 + 0 to 23 + 6 weeks' gestation. The incidence of neonatal unit (NNU) admission for ≥ 48 h was evaluated within different birth-weight-percentile subgroups. The pregnancy-specific risk of delivery with SGA < 10th percentile at < 37 weeks was estimated by the competing-risks model for SGA, combining maternal factors and the likelihood functions of Z-score of sonographically estimated fetal weight and uterine artery pulsatility index multiples of the median. The population was stratified into six risk categories: > 1 in 4, > 1 in 10 to ≤ 1 in 4, > 1 in 30 to ≤ 1 in 10, > 1 in 50 to ≤ 1 in 30, > 1 in 100 to ≤ 1 in 50 and ≤ 1 in 100. The outcome measures were admission to the NNU for a minimum of 48 h, perinatal death and major neonatal morbidity. The incidence of each adverse outcome was estimated in each risk stratum. In the study population of 40 241 women, 0.8%, 2.5%, 10.8%, 10.2%, 19.0% and 56.7% were in the risk strata > 1 in 4, > 1 in 10 to ≤ 1 in 4, > 1 in 30 to ≤ 1 in 10, > 1 in 50 to ≤ 1 in 30, > 1 in 100 to ≤ 1 in 50 and ≤ 1 in 100, respectively. Women in higher-risk strata were more likely to deliver a baby that suffered an adverse outcome. The incidence of NNU admission for ≥ 48 h was highest in the > 1 in 4 risk stratum (31.9% (95% CI, 26.9-36.9%)) and it gradually decreased until the ≤ 1 in 100 risk stratum (5.6% (95% CI, 5.3-5.9%)). The mean gestational age at delivery in SGA cases with NNU admission for ≥ 48 h was 32.9 (95% CI, 32.2-33.7) weeks for risk stratum > 1 in 4 and progressively increased to 37.5 (95% CI, 36.8-38.2) weeks for risk stratum ≤ 1 in 100. The incidence of NNU admission for ≥ 48 h was highest for neonates with birth weight below the 1st percentile (25.7% (95% CI, 23.0-28.5%)) and decreased progressively until the 25th to < 75th percentile interval (5.4% (95% CI, 5.1-5.7%)). Preterm SGA neonates < 10th percentile had significantly higher incidence of NNU admission for ≥ 48 h compared with preterm non-SGA neonates (48.7% (95% CI, 45.0-52.4%) vs 40.9% (95% CI, 38.5-43.3%); P < 0.001). Similarly, term SGA neonates < 10th percentile had significantly higher incidence of NNU admission for ≥ 48 h compared with term non-SGA neonates (5.8% (95% CI, 5.1-6.5%) vs 4.2% (95% CI, 4.0-4.4%); P < 0.001). Birth weight has a continuous association with the incidence of adverse neonatal outcomes, which is affected by gestational age. Pregnancies at high risk of SGA, estimated at midgestation, are also at increased risk for adverse neonatal outcomes. © 2023 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.