Abstract
We investigated the utility of geometric features for future AAA growth prediction. Novel methods for growth prediction of AAA are recognized as a research priority. Geometric feature have been used to predict cerebral aneurysm rupture, but not examined as predictor of AAA growth. Computerized tomography (CT) scans from patients with infra-renal AAAs were analyzed. Aortic volumes were segmented using an automated pipeline to extract AAA diameter (APD), undulation index (UI), and radius of curvature (RC). Using a prospectively recruited cohort, we first examined the relation between these geometric measurements to patients' demographic features (n = 102). A separate 192 AAA patients with serial CT scans during AAA surveillance were identified from an ongoing clinical database. Multinomial logistic and multiple linear regression models were trained and optimized to predict future AAA growth in these patients. There was no correlation between the geometric measurements and patients' demographic features. APD (Spearman r = 0.25, P < 0.05), UI (Spearman r = 0.38, P < 0.001) and RC (Spearman r =-0.53, P < 0.001) significantly correlated with annual AAA growth. Using APD, UI, and RC as 3 input variables, the area under receiver operating characteristics curve for predicting slow growth (<2.5 mm/yr) or fast growth (>5 mm/yr) at 12 months are 0.80 and 0.79, respectively. The prediction or growth rate is within 2 mm error in 87% of cases. Geometric features of an AAA can predict its future growth. This method can be applied to routine clinical CT scans acquired from patients during their AAA surveillance pathway.
Highlights
Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms (AAA) are an abnormal degenerative condition characterized by pathological dilatations of the abdominal region of the aorta
We investigated the utility of geometric features for future abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) growth prediction
Geometric features of an AAA can predict its future growth. This method can be applied to routine clinical Computerised tomography (CT) scans acquired from patients during their AAA surveillance pathway
Summary
Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms (AAA) are an abnormal degenerative condition characterized by pathological dilatations of the abdominal region of the aorta. An AAA is defined when the aortic diameter is >50% of the healthy aorta adjacent to the aneurysm. The natural history of an untreated AAA consists of progressive dilatation with eventual rupture and death. The clinical management of AAAs consist of screening/diagnosis, regular surveillance and timely surgical intervention by open surgical repair or endovascular stent grafting[1, 2]. Novel methods for growth prediction of AAA are recognised as a research priority. Geometric feature has been applied to predict cerebral aneurysm rupture, but not examined as predictor of AAA growth
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