Prediction of a Due Date Based on the Pregnancy History Data Using Machine Learning.

Abstract

Prediction of a labor due date is important especially for the pregnancies with high risk of complications where a special treatment is needed. This is especially valid in the countries with multilevel health care institutions like Russia. In Russia medical organizations are distributed into national, regional and municipal levels. Organizations of each level can provide treatment of different types and quality. For example, pregnancies with low risk of complications are routed to the municipal hospitals, moderate risk pregnancies are routed to the reginal and high risk of complications are routed to the hospitals of the national level. In the situation of resource deficiency especially on the national level it is necessary to plan admission date and a treatment team in advance to provide the best possible care. When pregnancy data is not standardized and semantically interoperable, data driven models. We have retrospectively analyzed electronic health records from the perinatal Center of the Almazov perinatal medical center in Saint-Petersburg, Russia. The dataset was exported from the medical information system. It consisted of structured and semi structured data with the total of 73115 lines for 12989 female patients. The proposed due date prediction data-driven model allows a high accuracy prediction to allow proper resource planning. The models are based on the real-world evidence and can be applied with limited amount of predictors.