Prediction models for the risk of new-onset hypertension in ethnic Chinese in Taiwan

Abstract

Prediction model for hypertension risk in Chinese is still lacking. We aimed to propose prediction models for new-onset hypertension for ethnic Chinese based on a prospective cohort design on community, which recruited 2506 individuals (50.8% women) who were not hypertensive at the baseline (1990-91). Total 1029 cases of new-onset hypertension developed during a median of 6.15 (interquartile range, 4.04-9.02) years of follow-up. In the clinical model, gender (2 points), age (8 points), body mass index (10 points), systolic blood pressure (19 points) and diastolic blood pressure (7 points) were assigned. The biochemical measures, including white blood count (3 points), fasting glucose (1 point), uric acid (3 points), additional to above clinical variables, were constructed. The areas under the receiver operative characteristic curves (AUCs) were 0.732 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.712-0.752) for the point-based clinical model and 0.735 (95% CI, 0.715-0.755) for the point-based biochemical model. The coefficient-based models had a good performance (AUC, 0.737-0.741). The point-based clinical model had a similar net reclassification improvement as the coefficient-based clinical model (P=0.30), and had a higher improvement than the point-based biochemical model (P=0.015). We concluded that the point-based clinical model could be considered as the first step to identify high-risk populations for hypertension among Chinese.