Prediction models for rice cadmium accumulation in Chinese paddy fields and the implications in deducing soil thresholds based on food safety standards

Abstract

Deducing soil cadmium (Cd) safety thresholds should be different for rice cultivars with different capacities to accumulate Cd to guarantee safe rice production in China. This study developed prediction models based on soil properties and deduced soil safety thresholds for Cd translocation from thirty-three paddy soils by two contrasting rice cultivars, Yelicanghua (high Cd accumulator, HCd) and Longhuamaohu (low Cd accumulator, LCd). A total of 330 paired field validation samples were used to examine the accuracy of prediction models and soil safety thresholds. The average soil Cd concentration was 0.26 (range 0.057–0.72) mg kg−1. The average brown rice Cd concentrations were 0.14 (0.043–0.55) mg kg−1 in HCd and 0.024 (0.007–0.15) mg kg−1 in LCd in 2017, with corresponding values of 0.16 (0.016–0.66) and 0.027 (0.009–0.10) mg kg−1 in 2018. Soil total Cd and pH were the two most important variables exhibiting direct effects on Cd concentrations in HCd, explaining 66% of the variance across the 33 soils. Soil total Cd, pH and organic carbon (OC) were the three most important variables in LCd, explaining 75% of the variance. Soil safety thresholds ranged from 0.27 to 1.00 mg kg−1 for HCd and from 4.52 to 46.9 mg kg−1 for LCd with pH ranging from 4.5 to 8.0. The validation results suggest ∼60% for HCd or the current soil quality standard (SQS) and 88% for LCd of the validation samples were suitable to meet the food quality standard (FQS), with 6.4% and 12%, respectively, of the validation soils unsuitable for rice cultivation. The current Chinese SQS is too strict for LCd which may be grown safely in moderately polluted soils and the derivation of soil thresholds should therefore consider the abilities of different cultivars to accumulate Cd.