Prediction models for overall and cancer-specific survival in patients with metastatic early-onset colorectal cancer: a population-based study

Abstract

Metastatic early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) is on the rise, yet there is a dearth of predictive models for this disease. Therefore, it is crucial to develop a nomogram to aid in the early detection and management of metastatic colorectal cancer in young patients. We retrieved data from the SEER database on patients with metastatic colorectal cancer aged 50 or younger between 2010 and 2017. The data were randomly allocated in a 7:3 ratio to training and validation cohorts, and univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) at 1, 3, and 5years. The nomograms were developed based on these factors, and their discriminatory and calibration capabilities were validated. Using the nomogram risk scores, patients were stratified into low-risk and high-risk groups. The study included 2470 patients with metastatic EO-CRC. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis identified 12 independent risk factors that were included in the nomogram. The training cohort had a consistency index (C-index) of 0.71, while the validation cohort had a C-index of 0.70, demonstrating good predictive accuracy. Calibration plots showed a high level of consistency between the observed and predicted values, with overlapping plots along the diagonal. The decision curve analysis (DCA) revealed that the nomogram had a high clinical application value. The novel nomograms were created to predict the prognosis of patients with metastatic EO-CRC, which can aid clinicians in developing more effective treatment strategies and contribute to more accurate prognostic assessments.