Prediction model to predict the number of damaged houses due to earthquake

Abstract

The earthquakes can cause serious the disruption to the functioning of a community, and can cause physical damage, including damage to houses and the environment. The number of damaged houses by the earthquake needs to be predicted well, so the disaster management activities can be carried out properly as well. This research performs calculations to predict the number of damaged houses by the earthquake, using RADIUS. The results obtained from the prediction model in this study still provide a high error value, which is 71.9%. This means that the output of the prediction model in this research is not accurate enough to predict the number of damaged houses by the earthquake in Indonesia. However, the prediction model in this research is presented in a mathematical model and has clearly shown the relationship between the input and output variables. So that it is easy to understand and can be developed in further research more easily. The prediction model for the number of damaged houses in this research then can be developed into an estimation model for the relief items needed by the internally displaced persons (IDPs). After predicting the number of damaged houses, the process of estimating the number of IDPs then can be carried out, if the estimated number of IDPs is known, then an estimate of the relief items needed by the IDPs can be calculated well.