Prediction Model of Firefighting Supplies Market

Abstract

The market size of the firefighting supplies industry is can be considered a derivative demand of the construction industry, and its patterns differ seasonally. In this study, the seasonal ARIMA model and the transfer function model were established, and their predictive performances were verified. It was statistically confirmed that the firefighting supplies market has a lagging character in the construction industry. Although the seasonal ARIMA model, a representative time-series model, is a suitable predictive model, the transfer function model linked to the construction market is more useful in the short-term forecast period. This study is the first statistical prediction study of the firefighting supplies market in Korea. Based on the structural characteristics of the firefighting supplies industry, the relationship between the building permit and firefighting supplies production should be established using the transfer function model, the transfer function model is more useful in the decision-making process of firefighting supplies policies and the manufacturer’s marketing.