Prediction model for the efficacy of folic acid therapy on hyperhomocysteinaemia based on genetic risk score methods.

Abstract

No risk assessment tools for the efficacy of folic acid treatment for hyperhomocysteinaemia (HHcy) have been developed. We aimed to use two common genetic risk score (GRS) methods to construct prediction models for the efficacy of folic acid therapy on HHcy, and the best gene-environment prediction model was screened out. A prospective cohort study enrolling 638 HHcy patients was performed. We used a logistic regression model to estimate the associations of two GRS methods with the efficacy. Performances were compared using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The simple count genetic risk score (SC-GRS) and weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) were found to be independently associated with the efficacy of folic acid treatment for HHcy. Using the SC-GRS, per risk allele increased with a 1·46-fold increased failure risk (P < 0·001) after adjustment for traditional risk factors, including age, sex, BMI, smoking, alcohol consumption, history of diabetes, history of hypertension, history of hyperlipidaemia, history of stroke and history of CHD. When used the wGRS, the association was strengthened (OR = 2·08, P < 0·001). Addition of the SC-GRS and wGRS to the traditional risk model significantly improved the predictive ability by AUC (0·859). A precise gene-environment predictive model with good performance was developed for predicting the treatment failure rate of folic acid therapy for HHcy.