Prediction model for coal-gas outburst using the genetic projection pursuit method

Abstract

This paper proposes to solve the coupling result problem of individual indexes and to improve the prediction accuracy of coal-gas outburst. According to gas geology research, the prediction index system is established from the context of an outburst-prone tectonophysical environment. A new model for coal-gas outburst prediction is developed through genetic algorithm and projection pursuit method. This model indicates the dangerous degree of occurrence of potential coal-gas outburst by calculating a one-dimensional projection eigenvalue which reflects the dangerous degree of coal-gas outburst. The prediction model is applied in the tunnelling working face 31041 of the Chaohua coal mine, and the dangerous degree of prediction is primarily identical with the in situ records. The case study demonstrates the reliability of the genetic projection pursuit method in predicting coal-gas outburst. [Received: October 16, 2015; Accepted: October 6, 2016]