Prediction Model for Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia in Preterm Newborns.

Joanna Maria Jassem-Bobowicz,Sebastian Kwiatkowski,Iwona Domżalska-Popadiuk,Dagmara Klasa-Mazurkiewicz,Krzysztof Preis,Katarzyna Stefańska,Anton Żawrocki

doi:10.3390/children8100886

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To develop a multifactorial model that allows the prediction of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) in preterm newborns. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A single-center retrospective study of infants born below 32 + 0 weeks gestational age. We created a receiver operating characteristic curve to assess the multifactorial BPD risk and calculate the BPD risk accuracy using the area under the curve (AUC). BPD risk was categorized using a multifactorial predictive model based on the weight of the evidence. RESULTS: Of the 278 analyzed preterm newborns, 127 (46%) developed BPD. The significant risk factors for BPD in the multivariate analysis were gestational age, number of red blood cell concentrate transfusions, number of surfactant administrations, and hemodynamically significant patent ductus arteriosus. The combination of these factors determined the risk of developing BPD, with an AUC value of 0.932. A multifactorial predictive model based on these factors, weighted by their odds ratios, identified four categories of newborns with mean BPD risks of 9%, 59%, 82%, and 100%. CONCLUSION: A multifactorial model based on easily available clinical factors can predict BPD risk in preterm newborns and inform potential preventive measures.

Highlights

According to the World Health Organization, annually, 15 million children are born preterm [1]
We aimed to develop a multifactorial predictive model for the development of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD)
BPD occurred in 46% of newborns, BPD rarely develops in more mature newborns

Summary

Introduction

According to the World Health Organization, annually, 15 million children are born preterm [1]. Preterm deliveries are associated with significant morbidity, mortality, high use of health resources, and a high economic burden [2]. A substantial decrease in mortality has been achieved in newborns with extremely low birth weights [3,4]. These newborns are prone to numerous severe complications, the most common of which is bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD). Several approaches to minimize BPD occurrence have been investigated, including the use of individualized and less invasive therapeutic methods. Owing to increasing survival rates of very preterm newborns, the number of those developing BPD remains stable [5]

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