Prediction Method of Tunnel Natural Wind Based on Open-Source Meteorological Parameters

Abstract

The rational use of natural wind in extra-long tunnels for feedforward operation ventilation control can dramatically reduce tunnel operation costs. However, traditional tunnel natural wind calculation theory lacks a prediction function. This paper proposes a three-stage tunnel natural wind prediction method relying on the Yanglin Tunnel in Yunnan, China based on the massive meteorological parameters provided by the open-source national meteorological stations around the tunnel, which make up for the partial deficiency of the meteorological parameters of the tunnel portal. The multi-layer perceptron model (MLP) was used to predict the real-time meteorological parameters of the tunnel portal using the data from four national meteorological stations. The nonlinear autoregressive network model (NARX) was used to predict the meteorological parameters of the tunnel portal in the next period based on the predicted and measured real-time data. The natural wind speed in the tunnel was obtained by a theoretical calculation method using the predicted meteorological parameters. The final tunnel natural wind prediction results are in good agreement with the field measured data, which indicates that the research results of this paper can play a guiding role in the feedforward regulation of tunnel operation fans.