Prediction by a multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging-based radiomics signature model of disease-free survival in patients with rectal cancer treated by surgery.

Abstract

The aim of this study was to assess the ability of a multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based radiomics signature model to predict disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with rectal cancer treated by surgery. We evaluated data of 194 patients with rectal cancer who had undergone radical surgery between April 2016 and September 2021. The mean age of all patients was 62.6 ± 9.7 years (range: 37-86 years). The study endpoint was DFS and 1132 radiomic features were extracted from preoperative MRIs, including contrast-enhanced T1- and T2-weighted imaging and apparent diffusion coefficient values. The study patients were randomly allocated to training (n=97) and validation cohorts (n=97) in a ratio of 5:5. A multivariable Cox regression model was used to generate a radiomics signature (rad score). The associations of rad score with DFS were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Three models, namely a radiomics nomogram, radiomics signature, and clinical model, were compared using the Akaike information criterion. The rad score, which was composed of four MRI features, stratified rectal cancer patients into low- and high-risk groups and was associated with DFS in both the training (p = 0.0026) and validation sets (p = 0.036). Moreover, a radiomics nomogram model that combined rad score and independent clinical risk factors performed better (Harrell concordance index [C-index] =0.77) than a purely radiomics signature (C-index=0.73) or clinical model (C-index=0.70). An MRI radiomics model that incorporates a radiomics signature and clinicopathological factors more accurately predicts DFS than does a clinical model in patients with rectal cancer.