Abstract
In recent decades, land use/land cover change caused by rapid economic development has led to a sharp decline in the values of ecosystem service. Based on the land use/land cover change images of the PRD in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020, the land use change was analyzed and the corresponding Ecosystem Service Values (ESVs) were evaluated. In addition, a future land use simulation model was developed to simulate multiple scenarios in 2030. The results show that the area of construction land increased nearly 166.05% from 1990 to 2020, and the total ESVs decreased by 11.20 billion yuan. The contribution order of the four types ecosystem service to ESVs is regulating services > supporting services > provisioning services > cultural services. Compared with 2020, the values of ecosystem service of all the five scenarios shows a downward trend, and the order is the Ecological protection scenario (EPS) > the Natural development Scenario (NDS) > the Carbon neutral scenario (CNS) > the Production priority scenario (PPS) > the Economic development scenario (EDS). The CNS may be the most suitable scenario for the PRD region among the five scenarios.
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