Prediction and optimization of heating and cooling loads for low energy buildings in Morocco: An application of hybrid machine learning methods

Abstract

In this paper, a metamodel-based approach involving simulation data collection and data-driven techniques was used to forecast and optimize heating and cooling loads in three different climates in Morocco. The metamodel method is gaining popularity as it offers a better balance between accuracy and calculation time. In addition, a wrapper method was used as a feature selection approach to find the best feature subsets in order to reduce models’ complexity. Therefore, the performances of eleven state-of-the-art algorithms including evolutionary-based algorithms, swarm intelligence-based algorithms and human-based algorithms, coupled with a learner such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Support vector machine (SVM), were assessed. Hybrid model based on League championship algorithm (LCA), Discrete symbiotic organisms search (DSOS) algorithm, Particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm showed better results in terms of accuracy and reduction of feature input parameters. Indeed, the best desired performances were obtained with LCA-SVM for cooling load, DSOS-SVM for heating load, PSO-ANN for both heating and cooling loads. On the other hand, to optimize the annual thermal load, the NSGA-II algorithm was used. Results showed a reduction of 68% of the total annual load compared to the base case in Meknes city, 73% in Ifrane and 67% in Marrakech. The solution that reflects a compromise between the two objective functions (i.e., cooling load and heating load) gives better results in terms of CO2 emissions reduction in all climates evaluated, except in the cold climate.