Prediction and forecasting in linear models with measurement error

Abstract

We consider measurement error models within the time series unobserved component framework. A variable of interest is observed with some measurement error and modelled as an unobserved component. The forecast and the prediction of this variable given the observed values is given by the Kalman filter and smoother along with their conditional variances. By expressing the forecasts and predictions as weighted averages of the observed values, we investigate the effect of estimation error in the measurement and observation noise variances. We also develop corrected standard errors for prediction and forecasting accounting for the fact that the measurement and observation error variances are estimated by the same sample that is used for forecasting and prediction purposes. We apply the theory to the Yellowstone grizzly bears and US index of production datasets.