Prediction and explanation of debris flow velocity based on multi-strategy fusion Stacking ensemble learning model

Abstract

The debris flow velocity fundamentally determines its intensity, thereby rendering its prediction a crucial aspect of disaster prevention and control strategies. However, accurate velocity prediction has consistently posed significant challenges due to the intricate interplay of various influential factors. To address the limitations of existing models, an explainable multi-strategy fusion of Stacking ensemble learning is proposed. Initially, an improved snake optimization (ISO) algorithm is employed to adjust parameters within the model’s learners. Benchmark function comparison tests are then conducted to validate the reliability of the ISO algorithm. Subsequently, a learner selection method based on predictive performance and degree of difference is established to facilitate the selection of basic learners and meta-learners. This leads to the construction of the Stacking ensemble learning model, achieved through the integration of parameter optimization strategies from the improved swarm intelligence algorithm strategy, the error weighting strategy, and the decomposition strategy. To assess the model, a case study of the Jiangjiagou Gulley debris flow is undertaken, focusing on the prediction of the debris flow velocity. The results demonstrate high predictive accuracy, with RMSE, MAE, and MAPE values of 0.19, 0.17, and 2.46% respectively. Furthermore, under the SHAP framework, global and local explanations of the predictions are provided. Through feature importance analysis, the bed slope gradient is identified as the most crucial feature in the velocity prediction of the Jiangjiagou Gulley debris flow. Coupling effects and contributions of input features to the debris flow velocity prediction are further analyzed and explained through feature interaction analysis and single sample analysis. This study not only provides a new method for debris flow velocity prediction but also provides guiding suggestions for debris flow monitoring and control.