Prediction and analysis of smart substation equipment prices based on the assumption of "adaptive expectations"

Abstract

Based on the actual situation of the development of smart substations in my country, the assumption of "adaptive expectations" and the relevant engineering cost theory, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of the equipment prices of smart substations, and uses the equipment price volatility as the benchmark to distinguish the different volatility conditions, adopting different forecasting methods to analyze the price change trend of smart substation equipment to improve the accuracy of forecasting prices. Finally, the hypothesis proposed in this paper is verified, and the price of smart substation equipment is most affected by technology and payback period, resulting in an overall stable price level.