Prediction and Analysis of Freight Transportation Demand Based on GM(1,1)-Markov Model

Abstract

The demand for cargo transportation can reflect the economic development level of different industries, and demand forecasting can solve the tense state of the transportation industry. Because the existing forecasting methods are limited to the description of economic indicators, the internal relationship between freight demand and various departments cannot be established, resulting in the prediction results are often higher than the actual freight demand. The research based on the GM(1,1)-Markov model Methods of forecasting freight transportation demand. Based on the GM(1,1)-Markov model to describe the demand index, the weighted theory divides the cargo transportation demand level to forecast, and completes the design of the cargo transportation demand forecasting method based on the GM(1,1)-Markov model. Experimental results: Taking the proportion of freight transportation demand in 2021 as the test object, the method in this paper and the traditional method are used to predict and compare. The prediction results produced by the traditional method are far lower than the actual proportion, while the method in this paper can be closer to the actual value and can It has practical application value to make a more accurate forecast of the demand for cargo transportation.