Prediction and Analysis of Container Terminal Logistics Arrival Time Based on Simulation Interactive Modeling: A Case Study of Ningbo Port

Abstract

This study is a driving analysis of the transfer data of container terminals based on simulation interactive modeling technology. In the context of a container yard, a model was established to analyze and predict the arrival time and influencing factors of container transportation through the data from the control center of the yard. The economic benefit index in the index system was determined through expert consultation, the automatic terminal can be obtained by acquiring the actual operating parameters of the terminal, and the terminal to be built can be acquired mainly through simulation modeling. Therefore, when determining the design scheme before constructing the automated container terminal, a terminal simulation model needs to be established that meets the requirements of loading and unloading operations and terminal production operations. In addition, an automated container terminal simulation model needs to be implemented to verify the feasibility of the evaluation model. The results reveal that the accuracy of the current prediction model is still limited—the highest accuracy is only 72%, whether there are continuous or discrete variables, traffic or weather variables. Moreover, the study denotes that the relationship between weather and specific time factors and the arrival time of containers is weak, even negligible. This study provides guidance and decision-making support for the construction of automated terminals.