Prediction and analysis of carbon emissions from construction industry in Liaoning Province based on system dynamics

Abstract

To respond to national policy requirements, reduce carbon emissions in the construction industry, and achieve the goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" as soon as possible. In this paper, a system dynamics model is proposed to predict and analyze carbon emissions in the construction industry in Liaoning Province. First, the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the construction industry in Liaoning Province are sorted out by searching relevant literature. Secondly, combined with the relevant data of the construction industry in Liaoning Province from 2009 to 2019 and the "14th Five-Year Plan" policy, set different simulation scenarios and use Vensim software to reasonably predict the carbon emissions of the construction industry from 2020 to 2030, and find out the impact of carbon emissions. The internal logical relationship of the main factors provides a theoretical basis and emission reduction path for reducing the energy consumption of the construction industry, reducing the total carbon emissions, and realizing the green and sustainable development of buildings.