Abstract
Global warming is accelerating the sea level to rise, which increases the risk of major coastal areas being submerged. Then, the residents may become environmentally displaced persons (EDP). A method of prediction and allocation of EDP is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the gray model is used to predict sea level and the amount of EDP. Then, the evaluation criterion for the responsibility ability of the EDP migration target countries is given based on the entropy and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. In addition, a two-way selection mechanism for EDP is constructed. Finally, the amounts of EDP for the next 10 years are predicted, and the allocation plan in 2030 is made by applying the proposed method.
Highlights
Climate change is widely acknowledged as a global issue
To overcome the above shortcomings, we propose an improved procedure of prediction and allocation of environmentally displaced persons (EDP) from a global perspective based on the gray model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
We have proposed a method of prediction and allocation for EDP based on the GM (1, 1) model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
Summary
Climate change is widely acknowledged as a global issue. Climate change has become the leading cause of displacement in some countries, according to one of the British poverty alleviation charity organizations, at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Oxfam in 2019. Climate change causes catastrophic weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods, tsunamis, or hurricanes, and it gradually brings about sea level rise (SLR). Due to SLR, some island countries may face the risk of being submerged; its residents may be forced to become environmentally displaced persons (EDP). Cao and Chen [5] proposed some suggestions on formulating an international climate migration law based on the situation and development trend of EDP. Arenilla and Hawkins [7] proposed a forced immigration solution based on current international human rights law. Lawrence [8] suggested that accepting climate refugee countries should consider medical methods. Hauer et al [9] further studies the basic mechanism, critical points, thresholds and feedback, risk perception, and migration of SLR based on the response of immigrants to SLR
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