Predicting War Outcomes Based on a Fuzzy Influence Diagram

Abstract

Predicting or deducing war outcomes is the basis of military strategy formulation. Considering the high information uncertainty and complex influencing factors of modern wars, we applied a fuzzy influence diagram (FID) to realize the macroscopic prediction of war outcomes. In particular, we identified multidimensional factors that influence war outcomes in a relatively comprehensive and practical manner, thereby obtaining a relatively complete FID containing 24 nodes, with the value node “combat outcome” as the core. Subsequently, we performed a simulation analysis for a hypothetical war scenario to demonstrate the specific application and applicability of the proposed FID model. This study expands the prediction methods of war outcomes, and demonstrates that an FID can be feasibly applied in an uncertain battlefield environment to realize the prediction and risk assessment of war outcomes. Moreover, this approach can be used to analyze prewar decision making. The findings highlight that combat participants should attempt to further improve their military technology and combat effectiveness to gain combat advantage.