Predicting value on short-term outcome of various established risk prediction models in extracorporeal membrane oxygenation treated cardiogenic shock patients due to ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the predicting value of different risk prediction models for short-term death in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) complicated by cardiogenic shock and treated with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). Methods: This study was a retrospective case-control study. Forty patients with STEMI complicated by cardiogenic shock who hospitalized in the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from April 2017 to August 2021 and treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and ECMO, were enrolled in this study. Patients were divided into survival group and death group according to their clinical outcomes at 30 days after ECMO implantation, and clinical data of the two groups were collected and analyzed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to compare the predictive value of ACEF, AMI-ECMO, Encourage and SAVE risk scores for mortality at 30 days after ECMO implantation. According to the evaluation results of DCA, the optimal risk score was selected. Kaplan-Meier curve estimating the 30-day survival after ECMO implantation was plotted by grouping risk scores with reference to previous literatures. Results: A total of 40 patients with STEMI combined with cardiogenic shock were included, age was (57.4±16.7) years, 31 (77.5%) patients were male, there were 21 (52.5%) patients in the death group and 19 (47.5%) in the survival group. Compared with the survival group, patients in the death group had higher lactic acid values, higher proportion of anterior descending artery or left main artery lesions, and a higher proportion of acute renal failure and continuous renal replacement therapy during hospitalization (all P<0.05). Compared with survival group, ACEF, AMI-ECMO and Encourage scores were higher in death group, SAVE score was lower in death group (all P<0.05). The ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of ACEF, AMI-ECMO, Encourage and SAVE scores in predicting mortality were 0.707, 0.816, 0.757, and 0.677 respectively (P>0.05). ACEF score demonstrated the highest sensitivity (90.5%) and Encourage score exhibited the highest specificity (89.5%). DCA indicated that the AMI-ECMO and Encourage scores had the best performance in predicting the 30-day mortality after ECMO therapy. Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis showed that the 30-day mortality after ECMO implantation increased with the increase of AMI-ECMO and Encourage scores (log-rank P≤0.001). Conclusions: The 4 scoring systems are all suitable for predicting 30-day mortality after VA-ECMO therapy in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction complicated by cardiogenic shock. Among them, AMI-ECMO and Encourage scores have better predicting performance.