Predicting Urban Land Use Changes Using a CA–Markov Model

Abstract

This study employs a CA–Markov model as one of the planning support tools for analysis of temporal changes and spatial distribution of urban land uses in Anzali, located in Gilan province in the northwest of Iran. In the first step, area changes and spatial distribution of land uses in the town were analyzed and calculated using geographic information systems technology for a time span 1989–2011. In the next step, using the transition matrix, the spatial distribution of urban land uses in 2021 was simulated, the changes were predicted and the possible growth patterns were identified as well. The results showed a declining trend of 10.64 % in forest, 8.52 % in Anzali wetland and 11.54 % in barren land during 1989–2011, and also an increasing trend of 7.1 % in urban areas for a time span 1989–2021. Major expansions in urban areas were witnessed around western and eastern borders of the city, particularly close to the eastern border. Scattered expansions were also predicted in the Anzali wetlands registered in the Ramsar Convention (southern borders). This study provides an opportunity to define and apply better strategies for environmental management of land use to make an optimized balance between urban development and ecological protection of environmental resources.