Predicting TV programme audience by using twitter based metrics

Abstract

The predictive capabilities of metrics based on Twitter data have been stressed in different fields: business, health, market, politics, etc. In specific cases, a deeper analysis is required to create useful metrics and models with predicting capabilities. In this paper, a set of metrics based on Twitter data have been identified and presented in order to predict the audience of scheduled television programmes, where the audience is highly involved such as it occurs with reality shows (i.e., X Factor and Pechino Express, in Italy). Identified suitable metrics are based on the volume of tweets, the distribution of linguistic elements, the volume of distinct users involved in tweeting, and the sentiment analysis of tweets. On this ground a number of predictive models have been identified and compared. The resulting method has been selected in the context of a validation and assessment by using real data, with the aim of building a flexible framework able to exploit the predicting capabilities of social media data. Further details are reported about the method adopted to build models which focus on the identification of predictors by their statistical significance. Experiments have been based on the collected Twitter data by using Twitter Vigilance platform, which is presented in this paper, as well.