Predicting Time-Dependent Distributions of Queues and Delays for Road Traffic at Roundabouts and Priority Junctions

Abstract

Vehicle queues and delays at busy road junctions have to be treated time-dependently when the traffic demand and the available capacity are approximately equal. Existing methods allow the queue length at a given time to be directly estimated as an average over all possible evolutions of the queueing system consistent with the given initial conditions and the time-dependent arrival and service rates. The paper describes the development of methods to predict the underlying distributions. Estimates of the variance and the overall frequency distribution for queue length and delay are obtained by simulating an M/M/1 queueing model with parameters varying with time. Predictive models are developed to represent the simulation results. They require as input values of parameters describing the duration of the peak and the time-average traffic intensities and capacities.