Predicting time-windows for full recovery of postfire regenerating Pinus halepensis Mill. forests after a future wildfire

Abstract

A regeneration predictor (RP) has been elaborated to forecast the minimal inter-fire period, required for full recovery (assumed at 1,000 mature stems ha−1, a typical value for a dense pine forest) of an even-aged, postfire regenerating Pinus halepensis population after a subsequent wildfire, in the future. The study has been conducted in three Aleppo pine forests of northern Euboea Island, Greece. Postfire field surveys of sapling growth, sapling density and reproductive dynamics (cone-bearing population fraction, annual cone and seed production per sapling, canopy seed bank build-up) were carried out for three, consecutive growing seasons (years). Additional postfire parameters, with values estimated from literature data, have been also included in order to devise the RP. In the cases of the three populations studied, the application of this RP provides time-windows for full recovery after a recurrent fire, as short as 10–15, 8–11 and 7–11 years, respectively (values corresponding to best and worst scenarios). It is suggested that in even-aged, postfire regenerating Aleppo pine populations, the minimal inter-fire period required for full recovery can be predicted by monitoring a few selected variables, namely (a) sapling density, (b) vegetative to reproductive shift dynamics, and (c) cones/sapling and germinable seeds/cone, for at least 2 years (either consecutive or 2–3 years apart) at a postfire age of 7–12 years.