Predicting the Susceptibility to Pityokteines curvidens Using GIS with AHP and MaxEnt Models in Fir Forests

Abstract

One of the most harmful biotic factors in forests is the bark beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae). They might have catastrophic consequences on the coniferous forest ecosystems, killing a lot of trees in forested area. One of the most significant pests of coniferous trees, particularly pine and fir, is the silver fir bark beetle, or Pityokteines curvidens. It may cause significant tree mortality and alter the structure and composition of forest ecosystems. The invasion of bark beetles is influenced by a variety of biotic and abiotic variables. Reducing the effects of potential infestations will benefit from early diagnosis of forest stands vulnerable to bark beetle infestations. The study focused on the comparison of Pityokteines curvidens susceptibility maps using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), and Maximum Entropi (MaxEnt) methods. The research was carried out in the fir forests of the Kastamonu regional directorate of Forestry in the Western Black Sea region of Türkiye. The eight main criteria used to produce the map were the stand structure, site index, crown closure, stand age, slope, and bioclimatic variables. The map of the infested stands was used for the models' validation. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) were used to determine the accuracy of the maps. This study could help decision makers to produce bark beetle susceptibility maps easily and rapidly so they can take the necessary precautions to slow or prevent infestations.