Predicting the spring algal biomass in Lough Neagh using time series analysis

Abstract

1. Lough Neagh is a large eutrophic lake covering 387 km2 with a mean depth of 8.9 m. It is an important natural resource, being the largest single source of potable water for Belfast, Northern Ireland.2. This report examines the causes of the year‐to‐year variation in the April–June (spring) algal biomass, measured as chlorophyll a, for the period 1974–92.3. The spring chlorophyll a declined following the introduction of a phosphorus (P) reduction programme at major sewage treatment works in 1981. However, since 1990 the chlorophyll a concentrations in the spring have increased.4. Time series methodology was employed to develop a model which explained 76% of the annual variation in spring chlorophyll a concentrations.5. The independent variables used in the multiple regression model were the previous year’s spring chlorophyll a concentration, soluble reactive P inputs for April–June and the particulate P concentration in the Lough during the previous summer.