Abstract
The yellow-legged or Asian hornet (Vespa velutina) is native to South-East Asia, and is a voracious predator of pollinating insects including honey bees. Since its accidental introduction into South-Western France in 2004, V. velutina has spread to much of western Europe. The presence of V. velutina in Great Britain was first confirmed in September 2016. The likely dynamics following an initial incursion are uncertain, especially the risk of continued spread, and the likely success of control measures. Here we extrapolate from the situation in France to quantify the potential invasion of V. velutina in Great Britain. We find that, without control, V. velutina could colonise the British mainland rapidly, depending upon how the Asian hornet responds to the colder climate in Britain compared to France. The announcement that a second hornet had been discovered in Somerset, increases the chance that the invasion first occurred before 2016. We therefore consider the likely site of first invasion and the probabilistic position of additional founding nests in late 2016 and early 2017. Given the potential dispersion of V. velutina, we conclude that vigilance is required over a large area to prevent the establishment of this threat to the pollinator population.
Highlights
The yellow-legged or Asian hornet (Vespa velutina nigrothorax) is native to much of Asia, from north-eastern India throughout southern and central China as far as Taiwan and as far south as Indonesia[1]
V. velutina was first confirmed in Great Britain in September 2016, when worker hornets were seen foraging at an apiary near Tetbury, Gloucestershire
Observations in terms of detection and destruction of V. velutina nests from the Andernos-les-Bains region of southwest France provide the most detailed description of local V. velutina colonization following its invasion into Europe in 200417. These data have been previously used to determine a simple mechanistic model of nest density, together with probabilities of detection whose success increases through time[18]. This density model, together with the observation that V. velutina are invading with an estimated wave-speed of between 67 and 82 km per year[11, 19], enables us to develop a predictive model for Great Britain
Summary
The yellow-legged or Asian hornet (Vespa velutina nigrothorax) is native to much of Asia, from north-eastern India throughout southern and central China as far as Taiwan and as far south as Indonesia[1]. By the National Bee Unit, suggest both hornets share the same haplotype as the mainland European population but could be related no nearer than the grandparental generation It remains unclear whether V. velutina established nests prior to 2016 or whether these represent independent incursions from a common source in Europe. Observations in terms of detection and destruction of V. velutina nests from the Andernos-les-Bains region of southwest France (around 100 km from the initial site of invasion) provide the most detailed description of local V. velutina colonization following its invasion into Europe in 200417 These data have been previously used to determine a simple mechanistic model of nest density, together with probabilities of detection whose success increases through time[18]. We outline the formulation of this mathematical model and the associated parameter uncertainties, before focusing on the predicted spread with and without control measures
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