Predicting the solar cycle amplitude with the new catalogue of hemispheric sunspot numbers

Abstract

<p>The sun’s magnetic field drives the 11-year solar cycle, and predicting its strength has practical importance for many space weather applications. Previous studies have shown that analysing the solar activity of the two hemispheres separately instead of the full sun can provide more detailed information on the activity evolution. However, the existing Hemispheric Sunspot Number data series (1945 onwards) was too short for meaningful solar cycle predictions. Based on a newly created hemispheric sunspot number catalogue for the time range 1874-2020 (Veronig et al. 2021, http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/cat/J/A+A/652/A56) that is compatible with the International Sunspot Number from World Data Centre SILSO, we investigate the evolution of the solar cycle for the two hemispheres and develop a novel method for predicting the solar cycle amplitude. We demonstrate a steady relationship between the maximal growth rate of activity in the ascending phase of a cycle and its subsequent amplitude and form a 3rd order regression for the predictions. Testing this method for cycles 12-24, we show that the forecast made by the sum of the maximal growth rate from the North and South Hemispheric Sunspot number is more accurate than the same forecast from the Total Sunspot Number: The rms error of predictions is smaller by 27%, the correlation coefficient r is higher by 11% on average reaching values in the range r = 0.8-0.9 depending of the smoothing window of the monthly mean data. These findings demonstrate that empirical solar cycle prediction methods can be enhanced by investigating the solar cycle dynamics in terms of the hemispheric sunspot numbers, which is a strong argument supporting regular monitoring, recording, and analysing solar activity separately for the two hemispheres.</p>