Predicting the risk of variceal rehemorrhage in cirrhotic patients with portal vein thrombosis: A two-center retrospective study.

Abstract

Although portal vein thrombosis (PVT) was thought to deteriorate portal hypertension and contribute to poor prognosis, risk stratification remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate its effect on the risk of variceal rehemorrhage and to develop a competitive risk model in cirrhotic patients with PVT. Cirrhotic patients with and without PVT admitted for acute variceal hemorrhage were retrospectively included after matching (1:1) for age, gender and etiology of cirrhosis from two tertiary centers with 1-year follow-up. Those with PVT were subsequently divided into the training and validation cohorts. Cox regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors and develop a competitive risk model, of which the predictive performance and optimal decision threshold were evaluated by C-index, competitive risk curves, calibration curves and decision curve analysis. Among 398 patients, PVT significantly increased the variceal rehemorrhage risk. Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified that the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score (P = 0.013), chronicPVT (P = 0.025), C-reactive protein (P < 0.001), and aspartate aminotransferase (P = 0.039) were independently associated with variceal rehemorrhage, which were incorporated into the competitive risk model, with high C-index (0.804 and 0.742 of the training and validation cohorts, respectively), risk stratification ability, and consistency. The optimal decision range of the threshold probability was 0.2-1.0. We confirmed the adverse effect of PVT on variceal rehemorrhage and developed a competitive risk model for variceal rehemorrhage in cirrhotic patients with PVT, which might be conveniently used for clinical decision-making.