Predicting the risk of osteoporosis in older Vietnamese women using machine learning approaches

Abstract

Osteoporosis contributes significantly to health and economic burdens worldwide. However, the development of osteoporosis-related prediction tools has been limited for lower-middle-income countries, especially Vietnam. This study aims to develop prediction models for the Vietnamese population as well as evaluate the existing tools to forecast the risk of osteoporosis and evaluate the contribution of covariates that previous studies have determined to be risk factors for osteoporosis. The prediction models were developed to predict the risk of osteoporosis using machine learning algorithms. The performance of the included prediction models was evaluated based on two scenarios; in the first one, the original test parameters were directly modeled, and in the second the original test parameters were transformed into binary covariates. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, the Brier score, precision, recall and F1-score were calculated to evaluate the models’ performance in both scenarios. The contribution of the covariates was estimated using the Permutation Feature Importance estimation. Four models, namely, Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest and Neural Network, were developed through two scenarios. During the validation phase, these four models performed competitively against the reference models, with the areas under the curve above 0.81. Age, height and weight contributed the most to the risk of osteoporosis, while the correlation of the other covariates with the outcome was minor. Machine learning algorithms have a proven advantage in predicting the risk of osteoporosis among Vietnamese women over 50 years old. Additional research is required to more deeply evaluate the performance of the models on other high-risk populations.