Abstract
We aimed to predict colorectal cancer (CRC) based on the demographic features and clinical correlates of personal symptoms and signs from Tianjin community-based CRC screening data.A total of 891,199 residents who were aged 60 to 74 and were screened in 2012 were enrolled. The Lasso logistic regression model was used to identify the predictors for CRC. Predictive validity was assessed by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Bootstrapping method was also performed to validate this prediction model.CRC was best predicted by a model that included age, sex, education level, occupations, diarrhea, constipation, colon mucosa and bleeding, gallbladder disease, a stressful life event, family history of CRC, and a positive fecal immunochemical test (FIT). The area under curve (AUC) for the questionnaire with a FIT was 84% (95% CI: 82%–86%), followed by 76% (95% CI: 74%–79%) for a FIT alone, and 73% (95% CI: 71%–76%) for the questionnaire alone. With 500 bootstrap replications, the estimated optimism (<0.005) shows good discrimination in validation of prediction model.A risk prediction model for CRC based on a series of symptoms and signs related to enteric diseases in combination with a FIT was developed from first round of screening. The results of the current study are useful for increasing the awareness of high-risk subjects and for individual-risk-guided invitations or strategies to achieve mass screening for CRC.
Highlights
IntroductionThere are numerous risk prediction models for colorectal cancer (CRC) in the literature,[1,2] including both genetic[3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10] and nongenetic models.[11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22] The former only ascertains informationEditor: Eva Zapata.WL and L-ZZ have equal contribution in the article
Since fecal immunochemical test (FIT) is expected to be more accurate in detecting colorectal cancer (CRC) than the questionnaire is, we had approximately one-third of the subjects identified as high-risk based on the questionnaire (20,633 out of 53,631) undergo a FIT and approximately two-thirds of the low-risk subjects based on the questionnaire (533,449 out of 891,199) undergo a FIT
A risk score was developed after training regression coefficients as clinical weights to assess the influence that each correlate has on the risk for CRC by using empirical data from the questionnaire and fecal immunochemical test (QFIT) program in Tianjin, China
Summary
There are numerous risk prediction models for colorectal cancer (CRC) in the literature,[1,2] including both genetic[3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10] and nongenetic models.[11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22] The former only ascertains informationEditor: Eva Zapata.WL and L-ZZ have equal contribution in the article.
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