Abstract
Climate change and climate variability are projected to alter the geographic suitability of lands for crop cultivation. Early awareness of the future climate of the current cultivation areas for a perennial tree crop like coconut is needed for its adaptation and sustainable cultivation in vulnerable areas. We analyzed coconut’s vulnerability to climate change in India, based on climate projections for the 2050s and the 2070s under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): 4.5 and 8.5. Based on the current cultivation regions and climate change predictions from seven ensembles of Global Circulation Models, we predict changes in relative climatic suitability for coconut cultivation using the MaxEnt model. Bioclimatic variables Bio 4 (temperature seasonality, 34.4%) and Bio 7 (temperature annual range, 28.7%) together contribute 63.1%, which along with Bio 15 (precipitation seasonality, 8.6%) determined 71.7% of the climate suitability for coconuts in India. The model projected that some current coconut cultivation producing areas will become unsuitable (plains of South interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu) requiring crop change, while other areas will require adaptations in genotypic or agronomic management (east coast and the south interior plains), and yet in others, the climatic suitability for growing coconut will increase (west coast). The findings suggest the need for adaptation strategies so as to ensure sustainable cultivation of coconut at least in presently cultivated areas.
Highlights
Coconut (Cocos nucifera L.) is an environmentally friendly smallholder palm of the tropical environment, cultivated in more than 94 countries in the world over 11.99 M ha, producing 67.04 billion nuts with a productivity of 5592 nuts ha−1 [1]
The present study aims to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on the suitability of a habitat for coconut cultivation and fill this key research gap
An important plantation crop grown in coastal belts and plains, is highly vulnerable to climate change, and there is urgent need for its appropriate protection and management
Summary
Coconut (Cocos nucifera L.) is an environmentally friendly smallholder palm of the tropical environment, cultivated in more than 94 countries in the world over 11.99 M ha, producing 67.04 billion nuts with a productivity of 5592 nuts ha−1 [1]. Indonesia is the largest coconut-producing country followed by the Philippines, while India, with. 2.1 million ha and 2.73 million t copra, occupies third place in area and second place in production. The coconut industry, which traditionally relied upon copra and coconut oil, and to some extent coir, is experiencing a tremendous transformation towards product diversification, high value product development, by-product utilization, and more importantly, is being used as health drink [3]. The nutraceutical and functional food properties of tender coconut water, virgin coconut oil [4], and inflorescence sap [5,6] are being harnessed for a diversity of health products and preventive medicine applications [7–9]. Indonesia is the largest coconut-producing country followed by the Philippines, while India, with 2.1 million ha and 2.73 million t copra, occupies third place in area and second place in production.
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